Furniture in Flux: The State of the Furniture Industry and the Impact on Factors
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the furniture and home goods industry has experienced a rocky yet transformational path. With demand high across the board and a host of supply chain and labor-related challenges, among others, carrying the day, Kirk Brown and Brian Resutek of Rosenthal & Rosenthal map how the industry got here and where it’s going.
BY: KIRK BROWN AND BRIAN RESUTEK, ROSENTHAL & ROSENTHAL
The furniture industry looks very different now than it did in March 2020. Last spring, manufacturers were worried about receiving payments from their customers and many wondered if their customers would even make it through the COVID-19 pandemic. Fast forward to today, and our furniture retailers are barely able to secure inventory to sell and are slammed with months-long backlogs. Consumer demand has never been greater and e-commerce and omnichannel platforms have created new opportunities for exponential growth. However, despite strong growth projections and the continued navigation through a pandemic, new challenges continue to emerge almost daily, leaving very little cushion for management to ever feel comfortable.
Stop and Go
As the pandemic picked up steam in late March 2020, the furniture industry was bracing for a broad shutdown in both domestic and worldwide production. Other sectors began to do the same, as retailers cancelled orders and factories shut down or significantly scaled back their production given the uncertainty about the path ahead.
By April 2020, there was essentially no domestic production or distribution of any kind available, which continued for the better part of May 2020. In June 2020, several regions began experimenting with soft re-openings, leading to an immediate uptick in online sales for home goods, including upholstered products and case goods, floor coverings and accessory pieces. Although people were starting to slowly venture out, they were still spending a great deal of time living and working from home. Consumer spending shifted from experiential purchases like dining out, travel and entertainment to sporting goods, athleisure apparel and technology. By May 2020, unique visitors in the retail home furnishings category reached a record at 133 million, a 26% increase from February 2020, and that mark has not dipped below pre-pandemic visitor levels, according to the Comscore Media Metrix Multiplatform. And with the influx of stimulus checks, Paycheck Protection Program loans and other financial assistance, there was a dramatic rise in demand for home improvement products, home goods and furniture.
This surge was originally expected to last through the end of 2020, when consumer demand and spending levels were expected to return to normal. But unemployment benefits have since been extended and the virus refuses to back down. As a result, producers are still facing challenges keeping up with supercharged consumer demand and it is unclear if it will let up anytime soon. Conservative estimates say it will continue at least into Q1/22.
As the pandemic swelled last year, there was a resurgence in collection factoring requests across the furniture and home goods sector. Unlike other forms of financing, collection factoring gave clients the assurance that their existing accounts receivable would be covered even though they were not able to commit to future orders. Factoring also helped clients address delays in payments and provided additional support when terms were changed or became more restrictive. Clients who ordinarily rely on credit insurance turned to factoring for the security and entire accounts receivable management process. In fact, since the credit insurance market has tightened, some clients have grown to appreciate the added benefits of factoring.
Current Challenges
While the furniture and home goods sectors are better positioned today than they were last March, there are still a wide range of issues that must be addressed if companies are to survive and thrive in this environment. Between sourcing overseas products and managing inflation on international freight costs, not to mention hiring affordable domestic labor and finding workarounds to the ongoing driver shortage in domestic trucking, the challenges facing the furniture industry have grown much more complex, especially when you add in the surge in e-commerce activity and skyrocketing sales through Wayfair, Amazon, Etsy, Macy’s, Home Depot, Lowes and others. There’s no question that demand has now far exceeded the capacity to deliver products.
As a result, producers and importers are delaying signing new customers because they recognize they can barely support their existing customers. Management teams are now rationing products to balance distribution across all customer channels and retailers are doing everything they can to capture market share and beat out competitors. It’s become survival of the fittest for the furniture and home goods businesses.
Overseas Freight Costs
Almost all domestic manufacturers and distributors at some point rely on certain imports from Asia, whether those imports be for raw materials like fabric, kits or wood pieces, or finished goods in the upholstered and wood categories. A year ago, international freight costs to ship these goods to the United States were $5,000 for a 40-foot cube. Today, those same freight costs have jumped to nearly $20,000. Because furniture is bulky, the number of units that can be shipped per container is limited, driving up the freight cost per item rather dramatically. This has resulted in significant price point inflation passed on to the retailer and, ultimately, the customer.
Labor and Trucking Shortages
On the domestic side, labor continues to be a problem. Most domestic production is focused on upholstered furniture, but with the factories shuttered in 2020 and the expanded federal unemployment stimulus, it’s been difficult to draw workers back to factories. To attract new employees, manufacturers have been getting more creative, with $750 sign-on bonuses and retention and referral-based incentives becoming the industry norm rather than the exception.
Domestic freight has also become a challenge. Driver shortages have long been a problem in this space, but those shortages increased significantly because of COVID-19-related slowdowns and shutdowns. One supplier with roughly 250 semi-tractors delivering products each week said that in July alone, they had nearly 30 trucks parked without drivers. With 30 idle trucks, delivery times were delayed by two weeks. Between the driver shortage, factory labor shortage and other production delays, a normal three- to four-week production cycle can easily expand to 10 to 12 weeks.
Supply Chain Disruption
The upholstered segment also faced unique challenges in early 2021 due to extreme weather conditions. Winter Storm Uri hit in February 2021, dumping snow and ice from coast to coast and hitting Texas particularly hard. There are two plants in the country that refine the resin chemical needed to produce the foam loaves for upholstered furniture and one was heavily damaged in the storm. The other factory was offline for scheduled maintenance. This resulted in a temporary halt in production of these chemicals. Although furniture production continued uninterrupted, silo supplies were quickly depleted and manufacturers were unable to source the foam they needed for their products. Most producers were forced to shut down for several weeks to allow supply to catch up with demand, which created further delays in the production cycle. Today, foam supply remains limited, but it has been stabilized and factories are maintaining at least a week’s worth of extra foam until supply levels normalize.
Inflation
While inflation is affecting nearly every aspect of the domestic economy, it has had a dramatic impact on the furniture and home goods industry. The price of core materials has increased significantly, with wood in both sheet goods and dimensional lumber experiencing increases of as much as 400%. Steel costs for mechanisms have increased as much as 300%. While lumber sheet goods did begin to ease in July, costs remain high, which has added inflationary pressure on the furniture sector.
In this environment, factoring has taken on new relevance. But like every business, factoring firms have had to rethink their offerings and adapt to meet the new challenges facing clients today. To remain competitive, factors have had to learn how to better manage the pipeline of orders, especially when demand far exceeds capacity. And with the recent explosion of e-commerce and direct-to-consumer businesses, factors have had to step in to help clients manage those accounts and payments differently. Considerations like pipeline delays, pricing and risk management have all become part of a factor’s purview and have changed the way factors take on and manage new clients. As always, factors must do their best to plan for the unexpected and be prepared for the inevitable pull-back whenever demand softens, or worse, drops off a cliff.
Industry Transformation
The furniture industry now recognizes it is in the midst of a period of significant transformation. But with any transitional moment like this, there are always questions that remain: Is there a portion of this remarkable demand for products that perhaps represents over-ordering by retailers to secure products early? If so, how much, and will any of those orders be cancelled? Will the bubble in the current booked order position across the sector slowly deflate or suddenly burst, wreaking havoc on the industry? And if current demand continues, will this ultimately lead to more inflationary pressure on the economy?
Of course, no one has all the answers or a crystal ball. As a result, producers will continue to seek out labor sources and shipping solutions to ease production delays, while consumers will continue to shop for high-quality products that can be delivered within a reasonable time frame.
There are many opportunities in this environment if businesses are in tune with their surroundings and strike while the iron is hot. Domestic producers could gain more traction in a market where many jobs have been lost to cheap labor overseas. Mexico may return as a viable option for production in the western hemisphere in addition to the United States and the country is poised to recapture lost production to Asia. In addition, direct-to-consumer channels are gaining steam among many producers as a sound alternative, helping them avoid intermediate delays via brick-and-mortar. For many, the question will be whether they continue doing business with online retailers like Wayfair and Amazon or explore their own direct-to-consumer channels to recapture lost margins, expedite deliveries and broaden their customer bases.
Things to watch for in the year ahead:
Wayfair sales have exploded since the pandemic began, and the company has reported six consecutive profitable quarters. The popular site is now an essential channel for home delivery, and with DTC here to stay, Wayfair has been crowned the king of the e-commerce furniture and home goods sector. Watch for even more growth among it and other e-commerce retailers in the months ahead.
Mexico is well positioned to recapture lost production to Asia, so look for further expansion south of the border this year. In addition, Canada is in the process of assessing possible duties on furniture imports from many of the producing countries in Asia and not just China. This could add considerable costs to import pricing, increasing production costs and further aiding production in Mexico and in the U.S.
The overwhelming demand for products is crossing all pricing segments, which is rare for the industry. Generally, when times get tough and consumer spending contracts, consumers look to buy furniture at lower price points and often in the promotional range. Today, all price points reflect vast increases in demand for products, with no segmentation between price points. Depending on how much longer demand stays at this level, those dynamics could shift.
Industry selling terms are under pressure from retailers due to delays in shipments. Furniture and home goods companies are trying to avoid the need to extend dating, but retail customers are demanding extended dating, even if retailers are contracted for their own freight.
By far the biggest development right now in the furniture space is the shift to direct-to-consumer and omnichannel sales, which was accelerated by the pandemic. Unlike other sectors, furniture producers were slower to adapt to this model and only now are understanding how critical that sales channel is for sustaining and growing business. While many manufacturers and retailers still rely on face-to-face sales in brick-and-mortar environments, a number of technology enhancements like virtual home design apps and Zoom meeting with sales associates have made buying furniture online a more pleasurable and efficient experience. All of this translates to more sales and furniture companies are now finally seeing the benefits of their investments.
Kirk Brown and Brian Resutek are senior vice presidents and account executives at Rosenthal & Rosenthal, a factoring, asset-based lending and purchase order financing firm in the United States.